‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Hostilities on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.
The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.
"Conditions are critical. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or piped gas, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."
Regional Impact
In a western metro, media reports say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Official Position
Yet, the authorities states there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now largely blocked by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.
Widening Concern
Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.
According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative claims price gouging.
"Distributors are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
