🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes added after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. The independent held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.