NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Season Finale.
As we head into the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of postseason berths remain open. However, far more is on the line, including the coveted top seeds in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have crafted a perfect finale, with the two remaining postseason places to be decided in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston Texans (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Steelers-Ravens game will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are set as wildcard entrants.
Houston need a victory and a Jacksonville defeat to jump from the fifth seed to third. Denver will earn the #1 ranking with a win, but a loss could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the victor of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still claim the divisional title even with a loss, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are set at the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the clash for the NFC's top seed between Seattle and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home playoff games on the line.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in each conference receives a crucial bye week and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
On the Wild Card round, the remaining six qualified teams compete: the second seed plays the #7 team, third hosts sixth, and fourth hosts fifth.
In the second round, the top seeds join the competition, facing the lowest remaining seed. The AFC and NFC championship games are then played at the best remaining team, highlighting the critical importance of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce rivalry reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth on the line, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
The Steelers have been up and down all year, while the Ravens started poorly but are still in contention. Player availability may prove critical: The Steelers may be without star receiver DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback Lamar Jackson is a doubt with a back injury.
Star rusher Derrick Henry might emerge as the difference-maker for the Ravens in what is set up as a physical, defensive struggle.
Battle for #1 in the NFC
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the division title is at stake when Seattle travels to San Francisco. The victorious team claims the conference's #1 spot and the path to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup features an explosive 49ers offense against a dominant Seahawks defense. Since quarterback their young passer came back, the 49ers have been the NFL's top offense. Conversely, Seattle's unit is rated among the best in the league.
The Seahawks' QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have haunted him this year. The team that wins this clash gains a huge edge for the postseason journey.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with strong form. The Buccaneers have lost four straight, while the Panthers have missed chances to clinch the title.
For Carolina it's simple: win and they're in. The Buccaneers, the scenario is trickier. Even with a victory, they require another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to steal the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A win over a L.A. Chargers team expected to sit starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Denver defeat would give the top seed to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They require a win and defeats for the Broncos and Patriots to achieve an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the AFC South.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
