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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.